MADDEN JULIAN: MJO FORESCAST

Spatial MJO OLR anomalies from the CA

 

MJO analaysis + forecast based off MJO filtered VP200/VP850 using the 1.0 degree GFS

  

MJO NCEP GFS - WEEK 1

MJO NCEP GFS - WEEK 2

40 DAYS SPHERICAL HARMONICS

EWP forecast of 200-hpa Velocity Potential

40 DAYS CFSV2

CFS forecast of 200-hpa Velocity Potential

MJO NCEP GFS - GLOBAL WEEK 1

MJO NCEP GFS - GLOBAL WEEK 2

MJO - 200HPA - 1era semana

MJO - 200HPA - 2da semana

EL MAR:

55M Temp Anomalies

105m Temp Anomalies

155 Temp Anomalies

Sea LEVEL ANOM ( CM )

Upper Ocean HEAT ANOMALIES:

Tropical Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) & Winds (Last 30 Days):

WIND ANOMALIES

Tropical-Extratropical Interactions

TRMM 3B42 rain-rates (shaded),
MJO-filtered 200 hPa Velocity Potential anomalies (colored-contours; cold-colored if negative; 0.5 STD intervals),
200 hPa Winds (magnitude only; black contours; starts at 40 m/s at 10 m/s intervals),
200 hPa irrotational winds (vectors; winds greater than 4 m/s only plotted)

Tropical-Extratropical Regional Plots

o   Maps of TRMM 3B42 rain-rates; MJO filtered VP200 anomalies; and 200 hPa Winds
o   TMPA rainfall rates and 1° GFS analyses are used for the last 7 days
o   Analyses are updated at 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC with a 12-hour lag
o   Negative (cold-colored contours) MJO Filtered 200 hPa VP anomalies represent upper-level divergence
o   Positive (warm-colored contours) MJO Filtered 200 hPa VP anomalies represent upper-level convergence

Current State (200 hPa Velocity Potential)
 

Today's CCKW analysis based off Kelvin filtered VP200 using the 1.0 degree GFS